Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead: Bitwise exec

Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Truly Dead? A New Era for Crypto Investing

For years, Bitcoin investors have navigated the market by the beat of the four-year halving cycle, anticipating price peaks and troughs with remarkable consistency. However, a seismic shift in perspective is gaining traction among leading figures in the crypto space, suggesting that this long-held market rhythm may be a relic of the past. Are we entering a new era where traditional cycles no longer dictate Bitcoin's trajectory?

The Bold Prediction: 2026 as Bitcoin's "Up Year"

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Invest, is at the forefront of this evolving viewpoint. Challenging conventional wisdom, Hougan posits that 2026, not 2025, could be Bitcoin's next major "up year." While acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in forecasting, his conviction stems from several powerful macro and structural changes within the cryptocurrency landscape.

Why the Four-Year Cycle is Fading

Hougan argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle is "dead" for compelling reasons. Firstly, the Bitcoin halving event, while still significant, is becoming "half as important" with each iteration as the asset matures and its overall supply dynamics shift. Its influence on price, while present, is diminishing relative to other factors.

Secondly, the broader interest rate environment is increasingly favorable for crypto. With growing public pressure on central banks to consider interest rate cuts, traditional assets like bonds and term deposits become less attractive. This scenario naturally steers investor capital towards higher-growth, alternative assets like Bitcoin, providing a sustained tailwind.

Perhaps most crucially, Hougan points to the increasing clarity in regulatory frameworks and the rapid institutionalization of the crypto sector. As more robust regulations emerge and major financial institutions embrace digital assets, the "blow-up risk" — sudden, severe market downturns caused by unforeseen events or regulatory crackdowns — is significantly attenuated. This newfound stability attracts more sophisticated capital, leading to a more mature and resilient market.

In essence, Hougan believes that the powerful, long-term pro-crypto forces driven by institutional adoption and improving regulatory clarity will ultimately overwhelm any lingering influence of the classic four-year cycle, setting the stage for 2026 to be a highly favorable year for Bitcoin.

A "Sustained Steady Boom" Over Super-Cycles

Beyond the timing of the next peak, Hougan also offers a nuanced perspective on the nature of the rally. He forecasts a "sustained steady boom" for Bitcoin rather than the aggressive, parabolic "super-cycle" rallies seen in previous eras. This suggests a healthier, more organic growth trajectory, potentially leading to less volatility and more sustainable gains for long-term holders. While volatility will always be a factor in crypto, the market's increasing maturity could temper extreme swings.

Echoes and Warnings from Other Experts

Hougan is not alone in his assessment. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, independently declared the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory "dead," noting a fundamental shift in whale behavior. Historically, large holders (whales) would sell to retail investors during bull runs. Now, Ju observes, "old whales sell to new long-term whales," indicating a profound institutional absorption of supply that fundamentally alters market dynamics. This institutional shift, he contends, is far "bigger than we thought," underpinning a new market structure.

However, not all analysts are ready to abandon the old playbook. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital offers a counterpoint, suggesting that if Bitcoin adheres to its 2020 historical pattern, the current bull run could see its peak around October, approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving. This highlights the ongoing divergence of opinion and the complexity of forecasting in a rapidly evolving market.

A significant risk highlighted by Hougan, and echoed by asset manager VanEck, is the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies. These firms accumulate Bitcoin by issuing new stock or taking on debt, making them particularly vulnerable to sharp price declines if they become overextended. Investors should monitor this area closely, as excessive leverage within these entities could introduce systemic risk.

Navigating the New Landscape: Key Takeaways for Investors

The evolving narrative around Bitcoin's market cycles presents crucial takeaways for investors:

• Rethink Traditional Cycles: While historical patterns offer context, the increasing institutionalization and regulatory clarity may be ushering in a new market paradigm. Don't blindly rely on past performance.
• Focus on Macro Trends: Factors like interest rate policies and global economic sentiment are gaining prominence in influencing Bitcoin's price, potentially more so than isolated halving events.
• Embrace Long-Term Vision: A "sustained steady boom" suggests that patience and a long-term holding strategy could be more rewarding than chasing short-term pumps.
• Understand Institutional Impact: The shift from retail-driven speculation to institutional accumulation signifies a maturing market. This could lead to greater stability but also different market behaviors.
• Mitigate Leverage Risk: Be aware of the risks associated with highly leveraged Bitcoin treasury companies. Diversification and careful risk management remain paramount.

While the exact timing and magnitude of Bitcoin's next major moves remain subject to debate and inherent volatility, the consensus among many experts points towards a future where the crypto market is less beholden to rigid four-year cycles and more influenced by fundamental adoption, regulatory clarity, and broader macroeconomic forces. This shift calls for a more nuanced and adaptive investment strategy, focusing on the long-term potential fueled by institutional integration.