Bitcoin analysis warns BTC price 'going lower' first as $113k slips

Navigating Bitcoin's Current Price Battle: Why Patience is Paramount

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently grappling with significant resistance, leaving many traders on edge as analysts anticipate further short-term price movements. While the immediate outlook points to a potential dip, underlying market dynamics suggest a fascinating tug-of-war between bearish pressure and the lure of upside liquidity. Understanding these forces is key to navigating the weeks ahead.

The Immediate Outlook: A Dip Before the Ascent?

Recent market data indicates that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the $113,000 level. Multiple analyses suggest that a further downside correction is likely before any substantial upward momentum can build. Trading resources highlight a lack of strong bid support above $110,000 on major exchanges, pushing the focus towards lower price targets.

On-chain analytics reinforce this view, with the cost basis of recent Bitcoin buyers suggesting that the area around the old all-time highs, specifically near $109,000, could serve as a critical price floor. This "airgap" between $109,000 and $116,000 is reportedly being gradually filled on dips, indicating steady investor engagement. Importantly, there's limited distribution from holders who bought in the $118,000–$120,000 range, implying a conviction to hold through current fluctuations.

The Upside Potential: Liquidity as Fuel

Despite the prevailing sentiment for a short-term dip, not all analysts are focused solely on the downside. A compelling counter-argument emerges from the analysis of liquidation hotspots. A significant portion of liquidations are concentrated in short positions sitting above the current price level. This creates a "massive pool of fuel" that could be "gobbled up" by the market.

This dynamic suggests that if Bitcoin were to initiate a move upward, it could trigger a short squeeze, accelerating the price ascent. Institutions are known to target such liquidity zones, making these overhead asks a crucial element to watch for potential upward bursts.

Key Levels and Impending Volatility

For bulls to regain control and aim higher, Bitcoin needs to decisively break above key resistance levels. Traders are closely monitoring the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes. A clear breach of this region would signal a shift in market dominance.

Regardless of the immediate direction, one thing appears certain: Bitcoin's current range-bound behavior is unsustainable. Market volatility has been slowing down, a classic precursor to a significant price move. As one prominent trader puts it, "a big move is on the horizon again."

Practical Advice for Traders: Embrace Patience

Given the conflicting signals and the anticipation of a larger move, the most valuable attribute for any Bitcoin trader right now is patience. Rushing into positions during this period of uncertainty can lead to suboptimal outcomes. Instead, focus on:

• Observing Key Support and Resistance: Pay close attention to the $109,000 area as a potential strong support, and the 200-period SMAs/EMAs as critical resistance.
• Understanding Liquidity: Recognize how large pools of short liquidations above the current price can act as fuel for an upward move.
• Preparing for Volatility: Anticipate that the current calm is temporary. Have a strategy in place for a sudden increase in price movement, whether up or down.

While the immediate path for Bitcoin remains uncertain, the underlying market structure provides clear indicators for those willing to wait and observe. The next major move could define the short-to-medium term trend, making informed patience your strongest ally.